Real Inflation Rate

The CPI in Canada is the index used to show the general inflation rate. This is occasionally publicized to show how the cost of living is increasing. This index is also used as the guide for increases in inflation adjusted payments such as the Canada Pension Plan. There is thus an incentive to minimize the true inflation rate to reduce pension payout increases.

Since 1986, The Economist magazine has used a method they developed to compare the relative cost of living in countries around the world based on the cost of a McDonald's Big Mac hamburger. The thinking behind this is that the cost of a Big Mac incorporates all the costs involved in producing a product: raw materials, labour, regulations and taxes. The cost of living in a given country could then be arrived at by looking at the cost of a Big Mac.

I thought of using this method to arrive at the true inflation rate in a country (specifically Canada) compared to the government stated CPI. This will not be as accurate as the comparison among the world's countries which takes place in the same year. My method looks at the price changes over many years and doesn't consider changes in the production of the Big Mac, such as changes in size, and increases in productivity. But this difference would have less impact the more recent the comparison.

The chart below compares the cost of a Big Mac in Canada compared to the government provided CPI data for the years 2000 to 2024. The numbers converge at the 2000 starting year by factoring the CPI to match the cost of the Big Mac in that year.

I used the website Social Science Statisctics to generate the slope to even out the data and provider a more accurate estimation of the true rise by removing the effects of those points outside the general slope of the data set.

Based on the government supplied information, the CPI rose 56.1% from 2000 to 2024. Based on the cost of the Big Mac, the price increase for the same period was 166.7%, almost triple the stated CPI!

Given increases in productivity and the apparent decrease in size of the Big Mac over time, the price increase is actually understating what would be the real price increase. See the raw data here.

Billionaire Picks

For Q2 2026, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management fund has these as his top holdings.

Brookfield Inc. (TSE: BN). – For future infrastructure buildup Brookfield will partake in many private firms. 17.6% of portfolio.

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) – For its AWS which powers cloud computing world wide. 17.4%.

Uber for its coming autonomous vehicles. – 15.7%

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). – 15.3%.

Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE: QSR) – consistent fees from franchisees. 12.2%

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) ~8–9%

Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) ~5–6%

Note that Ackman sold most of his Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) holding - reducing it from 6.1m to 312K shares! The reason is thought to be for the new large purchase of Amazon.

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Warren Buffett added Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) just prior to stepping down as chairman of B-H.

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Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group is a cautious value investor. This information is from the Q1, 2026 filing.

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) – increased his holding by 47% in the latest quarter, so it is now the largest holding – 12.7% of portfolio.

Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE: QSR) – 11.67% of portfolio

WESCO International WCC ~7.7%

Union Pacific UNP ~7.3%

Elevance Health ELV ~7.3%

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) increased position to ~6%

Willis Towers Watson WTW ~6%

Visa (NYES: V) – new purchase - sold three other fintech companies to buy this.

Aon plc (NASDAQ: AON) – new purchase worth about $250m. An insurance advisory company.

Norwegian Cruise Lines (NASDAQ: NCLH) – about $67m worth. Bought when price had declined.

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Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Capital holdings:

Natera Inc (NASDAQ: NTRA) – largest holding at 18.1%. A drug company current specializing in cancer screening tests.

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE: EWZ) – 8.7-9.9%

Insmed Inc (NASDAQ: INSM) – 5.6% holding. Another drug company. 5.6%

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) – 5%

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) – 4.7%

YPF (YPF) – 4.4%

BBB Foods (TBBB) – 3.3%

Alcoa (AA) – 2.9%

NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS) – 2.9%

Sea Ltd. (SE) – 2.7%

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) – a new purchase in Q1, 2026 but must be small because the above list is in order of holding size.

International Brokerages

Researching on the way to have investments held in foreign country that is not subject to taxation on dividends or capital gains. Two possible countries to open an account are Switzerland and Singapore.

In Switzerland, BVC Bank in Lausanne has a trading arm.

Singapore seems to a popular choice and this WISE article details the criteria on selecting an international brokerage there. For Singapore they list DBS Vickers, Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Syfe Trade, Tiger Brokers, Moomoo, and Saxo Markets. For Singapore (and Hong Kong) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is often the first one recommended on other websites. It is reliable and has been around about 50 years! But there are complaints about the complexity of the trading platform and with customer service, and they seem to be geared more toward active traders. Also, the parent company is from the U.S. so an IRS form W-8 is required to open an account. 

Here is a MoneySmart article on Singapore brokerages.

On a Google search I found KGI Securities (Singapore) Ltd. which is a subsidiary of KGI Financial Holding Co. Ltd., a Taiwanese company. They trade on the Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. They also note that an account can be opened without a visit to Singapore.

Saxo Markets is only open to residents of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong and Australia.

DBS Vickers commissions are typically 0.12-0.15%.

DBS Vickers trades on the following exchanges:
Singapore: Singapore Exchange (Main Board, Catalist, Global Quote)
United States: NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX & OTC
Canada: TSX & TSX Venture Exchange
United Kingdom: LSE
Hong Kong: Hong Kong Main Board & Growth Enterprise Market (GEM)
Australia: ASX
Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange

To open an account at DBS Vickers (and probably other brokerages) are the following:

• Canadian passport.
• Proof of residential address.
• Proof of tax residency (or tax identification number, if applicable).
• Information about the source of your funds and expected trading activity, as part of standard AML/KYC checks.

You will also probably need to have a bank account in Singapore. 

 

Warren Buffett Investing Criteria

This chart shows some of the criteria that Warren Buffett uses in selecting investments. SG&A stands for Selling, General, and Administrative expenses. It is a major line item on a company's income statement that covers all the day-to-day, indirect overhead costs required to run a business, excluding direct production costs like the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS).

Eric Nuttall

Investment manager for Nine Point Partners, Eric Nuttall has in-depth knowledge of the oil and gas business particularly in North America.

On his August 10, 2026 appearance on BNN Bloomberg, he provided his views on many of the top oil and gas companies. He sees that anticipated demand for natural gas (for data centers, etc.) as spurred  increased production without an increase demand which has depressed prices. He doesn't see a natural gas price appreciation until late 2027 or 2028.

Former recommendations of U.S. natural gas companies Antero Resources and Expand Energy he sold shortly after recommending as his fund shifted to exclusively oil and most of that in Canada.

▲ Suncor (SU; $87.07) – They own a lot and think it one of the best oil companies in Canada. It has under performed recently because of leadership changes.

▲ PHX Energy Services (PHX; $11.73) – A well run company but too small for them to own.

▼ Baytex (BTE; $6.10) – Good company that they hold, but it is almost fully valued. Eric's fund holds a small position in the company but waiting to add.

▼ Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET; $15.87) – They were too diversified in many countries that adds too much risk, though they have started to divest some of those to concentrate on Canada. Would not buy.

▼ International Petroleum (IPCO; $32.59) – Good company run by the Lundin family, but fully valued and Eric doesn't own.

▲ Cardinal Energy (CJ; $11.19) – A quality company with a good dividend. Eric owns in their income fund and personally. Yields about 6.4%. And has potential for equity appreciation on an oil price rise.

▲ Whitecap (WCP; $16.65) – Currently the largest holding in their energy fund! Company has two decades of inventory. He thinks it is also a takeover candidate. He sees low to mid $20 price. An 11% weight in their income fund.

▼ Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU; $69.17) – A good natural gas producer, but Eric's funds have moved exclusively to oil companies, especially Canadian companies, so they have sold all their natural gas stocks. 

▼ Advantage Energy (AAV; $10.94) – 85% natural gas company. Has been an market under-performer but a recent change in leaders to one with a proven track record will help the company. But, Canada is the worst market in the world to own natural gas. Avoid. 

▲ Freehold Royalties (FRU; $15.94) – Recommended as a good dividend play, but because it is a royalties company value appreciation is limited. [Compare Cardinal which, according to Nuttall, has growth potential.]

His Top Picks:

Cenovus (CVE; $41.24) - Caller asked his view of the best established Canadian oil company to hold for the long term. Cenovus is at the top. Dramatically increasing share buy-backs. 50-60% upside from here.

Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR; $41.71) One of Eric's larger holdings. Anticipating large special dividends in the near future. Even will oil at $70 their P/CF will decline from 6.2 to 4.2.

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV; $88.18) - 10-15 years of inventory but also now have NuVista's properties. Could acquire other properties. 12% FCF yield. Paid down debt and now buying back shares. Looking at a 50% premium over today's price which would be ~$128.  

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See data from Eric's past appearances on BNN here.

Dividend Income

Most dividends received from companies located outside of Canada are not paid in full to stockholders. Most countries have a withholding tax on dividends though in some cases the tax can be partially reimbursed if there is a trx treaty between Canada and that country. But there are a few countries that do not have a withholding tax. This list includes prominent companies in each country.

• Brazil (Petrobras, Vale, Itau, Unibanco and B3)
• Hong Kong
• Singapore
• Hungary
• Estonia
• Latvia
• United Arab Emirates
• Qatar
• Malaysia
• United Kingdom (Shell, British American Tobacco, BP, HSBC, Barclays, Rio Tinto, Imperial Brands, AstraZeneca, Anglo American, Unilever and GlaxoSmithKline)
• Vietnam

Taxes

Minimizing taxes is important, but it is essential to use all the legitimate methods to avoid underpaying or being guilty of evasion.

Methods to reduce taxes:

1. Donating to a registered charity or political party.
2. Offset capital gains with any available capital losses.
3. Moving a stock from a cash account to a registered account may generate a capital gain or loss. Use this wisely: use any unused capital loss to offset a capital gain, or generate a capital loss to offset current or future gains.
4. As much as possible, have income from savings come in the form of dividends rather than bank interest, including GICs. One way to achieve this with minimal volatility is with minimum rate reset preferred shares.
5. Keep high yielding Canadian dividend stocks out of registered plans to take advantage of the dividend tax credit.
6. Keep U.S. listed dividend paying stocks in an RRSP or RRIF. This allows receiving the full dividend without U.S. withholding tax (due to a tax treaty).

I've used StudioTax, a paid software, in the past and found it very good; the amount of tax that I had to pay was exactly as the software had calculated. Wealthsimple provides a free tax filing service.

The website TaxTips.ca has a page showing the tax rates in Ontario for various types of income. Note that the percentages below do not include the addition of the Ontario Health Premium which can increase the tax rates by up to 25%!